Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.190056 0.213485 0.238803 0.268218 0.301481 0.337963 0.381051
2025-11-23 0.149178 0.179189 0.213964 0.257319 0.310045 0.372239 0.451393
2025-11-30 0.125778 0.160429 0.203175 0.259983 0.333804 0.426897 0.553853
2025-12-07 0.102360 0.137806 0.184078 0.249249 0.339231 0.459903 0.635365
2025-12-14 0.086041 0.121741 0.170844 0.243833 0.350485 0.502023 0.736150
2025-12-21 0.073231 0.108464 0.159313 0.238778 0.361190 0.544810 0.845228
2025-12-28 0.065506 0.101289 0.155332 0.243894 0.387368 0.614060 1.006021
2026-01-04 0.057424 0.092355 0.147351 0.241506 0.401320 0.666332 1.148868
2026-01-11 0.051447 0.085863 0.142220 0.242787 0.421239 0.731157 1.324249
2026-01-18 0.046922 0.081103 0.139198 0.247044 0.446713 0.809233 1.537153
2026-01-25 0.040873 0.072896 0.129169 0.237414 0.445661 0.839300 1.665132
2026-02-01 0.035524 0.065226 0.119068 0.226132 0.439654 0.858867 1.775584
2026-02-08 0.031613 0.059813 0.112599 0.221244 0.446190 0.905693 1.955233
2026-02-15 0.028123 0.054753 0.106151 0.215487 0.450164 0.948234 2.134915
2026-02-22 0.026190 0.052486 0.104839 0.220013 0.476485 1.042589 2.451332
2026-03-01 0.023307 0.047931 0.098337 0.212624 0.475700 1.077351 2.634922
2026-03-08 0.021145 0.044600 0.093942 0.209187 0.483300 1.132630 2.881103
2026-03-15 0.019237 0.041570 0.089795 0.205695 0.490211 1.187508 3.138334
2026-03-22 0.018196 0.040303 0.089332 0.210664 0.518343 1.299340 3.572639
2026-03-29 0.016785 0.038028 0.086308 0.209046 0.529755 1.370711 3.910377
2026-04-05 0.015717 0.036415 0.084609 0.210457 0.549263 1.467024 4.343112
2026-04-12 0.014898 0.035289 0.083924 0.214346 0.576072 1.588275 4.880321
2026-04-19 0.013472 0.032524 0.078916 0.206211 0.568486 1.611226 5.114164